Setting the Daily BiasThe Top-Down Method

Decide which way the Dow leans before the session opens — and why deciding beforehand is the whole point. This free lesson covers: What a bias is, Why it is set before the open, When to decide, Where the daily candle closed, Reading the close, Structure over recent days, Name the structure, Bounce or reversal, Writing the bias down, Which is a usable bias?.

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The Top-Down Method · Learn · Step 1 of 10

What a bias is

A daily bias is a single sentence: which direction you expect US30 to favour this session, and what would tell you that expectation is wrong.

It is not a prediction and not a promise. It is a starting assumption that decides which setups you take seriously and which you leave alone.

Going deeper

More on setting the daily bias

Setting a bias before the session is an application of pre-commitment: deciding while calm what you will do when you are not. The value comes from the decision being reviewable afterwards.

Hindsight bias makes post-hoc analysis almost useless — once you know the outcome, the chart genuinely appears to have signalled it. A written bias is the only defence.

Common mistakes4
  • Forming the bias after watching price move, which makes it a description rather than a prediction.
  • Stating direction without an invalidation condition, leaving nothing that can be graded.
  • Refusing to have no bias. Some days the honest read is that there is no clear lean.
  • Carrying yesterday's bias forward without re-reading the chart.
From experience2
  • Write the bias in one sentence containing a condition: "leaning long while above X". If it will not fit that shape, it is not clear enough.
  • Review last week's biases against what happened. That review is where the improvement actually comes from.
Questions people ask3

What time should I set my US30 bias?

Before the session you intend to trade — most commonly during the London morning for a New York session. The specific hour matters less than it being before, not during.

What if the bias is wrong by mid-session?

The invalidation condition tells you. Once it is hit, the read is void and the correct action is to stop looking for setups in that direction.

Can I change my bias during the day?

You can void it, which is what invalidation means. Quietly reversing it to fit what price is doing is how a plan becomes a rationalisation.