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Performance

Expectancy

The average result per trade: (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Usually expressed in R.

A method winning 40% of the time with +3R winners and −1R losers has an expectancy of +0.6R — strongly profitable despite losing six times out of ten.

Taught in

Profit Factor and ExpectancyMeasuring Your Edge

Two numbers that answer the only question that matters: is this method making money, and how much per trade?

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